Geengineering escapes climate tipping points, but not when we long

One of the many dangers of maintaining the Pump carbon dioxide in the air is that we can trigger tipping points such as closing the essential waves of the ocean. Now, a model study suggests that Inject with Aerosols to Stratossphere The reflection of the sun will reduce this risk – but also this action is more effective when it starts with 2080 than soon.

“My conclusion from this is when you are serious about preventing tapping (points), you should take potential benefits and its risks,” as Claudia Wiener at Utrecht University in the Netherlands.

Tipping points refers to changes that cannot be returned for centuries, if at all. They include slowing or stopping waves in the oceans with an important role in global climate by bringing a lot of heat to heat.

One is the Atlantic Meridional crossing circulation (ANOC)bearing heat from European tropics. If it collapses, it can easily increase the sea level in North America, a severe drop in temperatures in northern European and severe destruction of monsoons throughout Asia.

Stratospheric Aerosol Injection is a Suggested geengineering form involving the addition of particles reflecting particles in the upper atmosphere using airplanes, wolves or Rockets.

According to a model used by the Wieners team, the restraint of the amoc reduced to more than half of the next century in a worst case citario. But if injective in the stratospheric aerosol to resume the increase in world temperature is about 1.5 ° C, the weakness of the current climate conference claim in the UK last week.

In fact, the amoc decreases in this scenario than the one with rapidly reduced emissions but no geegineering. “So, indeed, at least in the next 80 years or more, (greenhouse gas) helps inject the stratospheric aerosol,” as wieners.

However, if the stratospheric aerosol injection is delayed until 2080 and then used to restore the temperature of the total pre-industrialization after the amoc repair, the model is recommended.

The team also looks at the North Atlantic Subpolar Gyre, a rounded current involved in anoc flowing around the areas where cold, overly salty water in water. If this sink stopped because the sea becomes more hot, there are even key effects of European climate.

In a worst case scenario, the model suggests that the ends are over and that Stratospheric Aerosol Injection begins with 2080 can’t restart it. But if the injection of aerosol is the start now, the drowning preserves two from three key regions.

However, those who know should be proven by many additional studies that look at more realistic emissical situations, as wieners – and there are many dangerous disasters. “You can also get worse,” he said.

For beginners, successful Geee bulineering takes close cooperation in the world for centuries to come. “You can think about it as the biggest challenge of managing that the person facing,” ethicist Stephen Gardiner From the University of Washington in Seattle said another conference talk.

For example, if injective of stratospheric aerosol has been done in a hemisphere – maybe because of the lack of a global consensus – it will shift the tropical rainfall zone around the world, warns wieners.

In the third talk, Jim Haywood At the University of Exeter, UK, mentioned how the experimental models are shown, if done in some parts of the world, another form of geoeheneering called Sea shine can prompt a “mega-la niña” that severe air pressure changes lead to higher sea level in the next century than to heat itself.

Now we know the risk, avoid it, Haywood said. “You just changed your way.” But many researchers cannot confidently we can manage Geo risks.

“Solar radiation management as a fully manageable matter. Doesn’t we need to use the term radiation-inititions in solar solar radiation?” Stefan Rahmstorf From the University of Potsdam in Germany asked wiers after his talk.

There is also the risk that geengineering appears as an option to cut off emissions. “It does not answer the root cause of climate change,” as wieners. “It is, best, symptoms of fight, but maybe if the symptoms are so bad, it can be a good addition to true solution.”

Due to these issues, some climate scientists resisted to research potential risks and benefits of geoeengineering. This is controversial at least one conference attending attendance at a geenGineering focus.

Wieners are not the first to report that geengineering should start soon to avoid tapping points. Last year, two independent teams have concluded blocking Solar radiation can prevent collapse of West Antarctic Ice Sheet – Another main point in tipping – but if only it can be soon, and with big erasing cuts.

“This is meant to be more likely to wait, the higher the risk is that something cannot be converted to occur,” Wiers told New Scientist after his talk. “I think that’s obviously clear.”