Climate change fingersprints come early, an experimental thinking reveals

An experimental thinking reveals fingerprints of climate change early

by Ben two,, Susan Solomon,, David WJ Thompson & Qiang Fu

Physics who love Experiment–Thinking Experiments that is difficult or impossible to do in the real world. Schröoning Cat A famous example of an experimental thinking, used to describe complexities of quantum mechanics. This puzzle occupies some of the best and most extreme physics in the early 20th century.

We tried the same thing Recently, there is only a change in the climate. Current network of satellites and temperatures sensors, when scientists know, beyond a reasonable doubt, which adds to atmospheric co₂ FROM Fossil Fuel Change and Land Usage Using changed our global climate? You can surprise the resultsAnd they help illustrate why it is important to continue to maintain world climate monitoring.

Our thinking experiment uses simulations of climate change from nine different state-of-the-art computer models. We make three important thoughts. The first is to return to 1860, the scientists of our “Gedanen World” have the technology to monitor tropets (the whole 15 km to 50 km). In history, world monitoring did not happen until 1940 using early wolf’s networks. More recently, since the late 1970s, we monitor global atmospheric temperatures changed by satellites.

In support of science journalism

If you enjoy this article, think about supporting our winning journalism in Subscribe. By purchasing a subscription you helped to ensure the future of influential stories about the discoveries and ideas that make our world today.

Second, we considered that during the period 1860 to 2024, the simulations models have been used in greenhouses with natural changes in the outer operation of the simulated simulations from the observation of observation.

Third, we consider the models of people and natural reasons, and that the size of the model “Climimer Functions to the observations of the observations and innovation of the evidence of the wrong things that will bring out the wrong things that make us know the wrong things that will bring us out of the wrong things to know our Low Line.

The work of the Syukuro (“Suki”) Manabe helped encourage this investigation. Back in 1967, Manabe – that later goes to accept the 2021 Prize Prize For physics – published one of the most famous papers In climate science. With his workmade Richard Hetherald at NOAA Geophysical Dynamics Laboratory Laboratory (GFDL) in Princeton, NJ, Used by Manabe a simple climate model To show that increasing atmospheric level co₂ lead to more Efficiently withdrawal heat in troposphere. The outcome? Tropabpa heating and Stratosphere closely. The first one has earned most of the world’s attention for good justification – where we live alive – but the latter becomes more useful in our mind.

1967 Manabe and Hetheralal Paper Gets a Tested Prophecy: If people continue to burn fossil fuels and ramps at the CO level₂ In the air, the vertical structure of atmospheric temperature will change not only the troposphere but also in stratosphere. But back in 1967, scientists lacked long records needed to test this prophecy, especially in middle stratospheresose, between the middle stratospheresose, between the middle of the earth.

Decades after 1967, Balloon at the time and Satellite temperature records revealed that manabe and hetheladd are right. Their predicted pattern of thermal structure change in the atmosphere Visual. Important, this pattern of human influence – showing long-time, global-scale tropospel with tropospongs – not to be confused with natural temperature changes. “Fingerprint of man” at atmospheric temperature Different different From the natural temperature of the fingerprints caused by the sun, volcano and internal climate noise. If scientists say we know people causing climate change, this fingerprint is an important reason why.

Which brings us back to our “when do we know?” Thought experiment.

Even if the question is simple, the answer is not clear. The first 40 years of thinking experiment (from 1860 to 1899) a period of large scale fossil fuel burning and digging just began to ratchet during the industry revolution. The resulting increase in atmospheric co₂ At this time, we can estimate from Antarctic Ice Cores, so 10 parts per million. It’s a little relative to the new co₂ adding to Fewer 54 parts per million For 25 years from 2000 to 2024. However, these moderate 10 parts per million early co₂ It has been increased in order to bring important stratosphere repair over 1860 to 1899. Stratospheric size in time of stratopheric in time, crakatoa time in the 1883, and internal climate.

Due to these differences between signal and noise, our mind experiment shows that even the little cause of human cooling, our recruitment recruitment is at the global climate even before Carl Benz patent of the first car used in fuel. The sign of the person who warms the troposphere appeared later, in the second half of the 20th century, because people and natural climate change patterns are more similar to the trafficking.

Could this knowledge of progress make a difference? Has the person followed a separate passage of energy using the understanding that the fossil fuel flaming finally toward large, changes worldwide in the world of climate? That is outside our sandbox as climate scientists – this is a question for philosophers, social scientists, and science historians. But in our opinion, Based on history of other environmental problems in the worlddetermine that early knowledge of reality and seriousness of climate change can enhance the first global action to reduce emereming greenhouse gas.

Worth the announcement of our SIGN of the “fingrintprints” of the atmosphere predicted by Manabe and Hetherald were run NOAA and the satellite satellite remote sincing. The work of these agencies is an important part of our research, and the National and International Climate Science Centerprise.

But in the United States in 2025, funded by the federally climate climate, including observation and modeling work, systematically broken. This is not an experimental thinking. Everything is true. We now observe what happens over many years of work to determine nature and climate changes are rejected, and replaced with the theories of agreement and spread. Climate work stop leads to a vacuum of data that can last year or even decades. This experiment with the intentional ignorance can conclude.

It is an article and analytical articles, and the insights that the author or only inspect themselves and not in any organization they are involved in or need in American American.