Americans unhappy in President Donald Trump’s second term made to ask for something they don’t fit.
If the US Treasury market is crash, thinking goes, then Trump will be forced to change his policies. Bid merchants can just knock across the economic economic cards and then, presto! Goodbye to tariffs and hello to fiscal responsibility.
Time for an investigation of truth: First, a bundle market crash can be a disaster to spend Americans in the coming years. Second, certain that the bond market certainly does not end.
How do we know? Nothing can predict the future, but whoever sees what are real traders who put into the real money in line that believes, yes, the future.
The most active 30-year Treasury Bond and 10-year Treasury Note contracts show the expected prices at the end of the year, and have order, for sure. They also demonstrate an unusual interest pattern at rates remaining longer while the dollar wagons.
So far, however, markets don’t pricing anything like a crash. In fact, long interest rates of interest are less than 5% and counting below recent days, not a sign of a close crisis.
Of course, markets can turn to a dime, as experienced in the United Kingdom three years ago. A newly selected Prime Minister, Liz Truss, pushed by a non-irresponsible budget with funds of large tax cuts with additional borrowing.
In this case, the reaction is easy: Traders have dropped British bonds and sent the British Pound that arrived against the dollar. Truss was injured forced after 50 days in the office, and British economy now began to recover.
The same happens in the US, in theory. But indeed, the US economy has a more powerful absorbing policy than the UK, because it is very good.
In a talk earlier this month, Austan Goolsbee, heading to the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, compatible with the economy of a six-pack of stomach muscles. The problem is, this gym rat has a layer of fat in muscles, so they are hard to see. In his analogy, the underlying economy is strong, but it is kept in the uncertainty of on-to-time, which are now dominated by the acronym taco, which is currently dominated by the acronyms, currently dominated by the acronym taco, which is currently dominated by the acronym taco, now Acronym Taco, currently dominated by Acronym Taco, currently dominated by the acronyms, currently being shot by the acronyms, currently dominated by the acronym taco, currently dominated by acronym taco, and other Destabiliizing policies.
But in the unemployment of 4.2% and inflation of 2.3% (and close by 2% Fed target) “Hard data” is healthier. Not only does the US predict forecasted in previous years, but the development was taken in the sum of 2024. The US remains increasing debt by raising the increasing debt by raising this debt by raising this debt, it would be good.
In his recent talk, Goolsbee acknowledged that US interest rates are higher than they should be due to policy uncertainty. Get that “dust from the wind,” as he put it, heal at a lower rate. “If you have steadfast, full work and inflation to target, rates can go down.”
The lower rate makes it cheaper to get loans and conduct debt, to encourage consumer spending and investment in business. Washington should cut off the chaotic policy policy and accept responsible political solutions without vigilante bundles to force the issue – as the critics of Trump.
Chicago Tribune / Tribune News Service
