The Gulf’s economic nation has been compared to the increase in anxieties of a mildly shrinking in the United States and European parts in the third or fourth quarter and strategic investments in the key factors.
“The expected 45 percent of UAE progresses in 2025 stands as opposed to a global view marked with the risk changes and redirector, director management for the Traze, told Arabian business.
The country’s economy grows by 3.8 percent year-of-year to First nine months 2024With no oil GDP contributing about AED 987 billion, approximately 75 percent of total trillion 1.322 trillion. The expected GDP recovery of oil, as cutters + of OPEC cuts + gradually reversed, can provide an additional growth driver.
At this time, UAE saw significant growth in many sectors, Vijay Valecha, the Chief Investment Officer of Financial Finances, found.
“The transportation and storage sector has prescribed 7.9 percent growth due to a 20 percent passenger flow to airdrations, while the research sector developed in the airdro and insurance sector,” he was sector, “he said.
UAE’s financial markets shows a greater stability than global peers during recent freshness.
“From 13 major indenters, only six recovers from new market drawdowns – with Dubai and Abu Dhabi who repaired, recalled the fifth and Valecha.
In the first quarter of 2025, Valecha said, the Dubai Financial Market welcomes 19,366 new investorswith 86 per cent to be foreign national. The market records the maximum average daily trading amount of over a decade of AED 663 million, marking a 67 percent increase from the same period of 2024.
The recession of shrinking is heavy but retains the risks
The international fund of the Monetary Fund Projects Global Trade Grows Slow to 1.7 percent This year, present a significant test of Gulf economies. With the advancement of the Gulf Cooperation Council expected to be moderate to 3 percent, from first understanding, external risks remain large.
JPMorgan recently changed the possibility of shrinking US from 60 percent to 40 percent after a temporary quitting US-China Tariff action. US growth isolated to reduce to 1.8 percent of 2025, a percentage point lower than 2024.
“The possibility of a global recession in 2025 remained raised due to increased trade frictions and developed restraint,” said Al Saifi. “As for this, economies are strongly exposed to the US, such as Canada and Mexico, see possible contractions.”
For the Gulf Region, pressures reproductions are likely to be passed through an improvement in global demand and subsequent weight of oil. “A recession in the US or Europe is likely to lower the pressure of global oil demand and weigh the fiscal show,” Al Saifi explained.
However the gulf economies appear to be better position than previous cycles.
“There are many sovereign properties of wealth, with inflation, and strong domestic demand provides a defense degree,” Al Saifi added. “Given the currency pegs in the US Dollar region, any reduction in the Federal Reserates interest rate will interpret a more accurate financial situation.”
The Hamza Dweik, President of the Saxo Bank Minta, noticed that the “strong bases of Macroeconomic in UAE, active IPO streams, and various safe flow to global landscapes.”
UAE inflation is expected to remain approximately 2 percent throughout 2025, despite high pressure from global tariff.
“Consumers’ expenditures expanded to expand 4.3 percent, supported by steady economic growth and is likely to be eliminated by interest,” says Al Saifi. These comparisons are often frequent challenges to inflation in western economies.
The sectors show a variety of easy
Not all UAE economic sectors are equally protected from global headwinds, experts say.
“Oil and gas, even aggressive leakage steps, still contributed about 25 percent of the UAE GDP,” Valecha said. “In times of shrinkage, global oil demand may fall into many UAE-based companies by falling in oil prices.”
Tourism and hospitality can see a reduced vacation expenditure yet Dubai attracts 18.72 million international visitors to 2024mark a 9.2 percent of year-of-year rise. “It can mean that planes are like Emirates and Etihad, with major hotel chains, can experience reducing revenues,” he added.
The real estate sector, which depends on foreign investment and capital flow, can also face challenges. ValeCha added that the primary property developers can witness slowly sales and reducing property prices and construction projects can face cases, especially if strapped to foreign investments.
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The more shallow sector includes consumer staples, health care and goods. “A defensive sector such as health care can remain well supported by the bad demand for medications and health care products, regardless of the overall economic condition,” ValeCha has meant.
“Dubai and Water Authority and Abu Dhabi National Energy Company, which is supported by the state, write from market order.”
Trump’s visit strengthens economic views
UAE economic prospects received an important development from new United States agreements after visiting President Donald Trump’s. Commercial agreements of $ 200 billion were signed, with a wider investment commitment of $ 1.4 trillion over the next decade.
Ang mga pakigpulong sa bilateral nga trade nga nakatuon sa artipisyal nga paniktik, advanced nga teknolohiya, ug mga semiconductors, nga natapos sa paglansad sa paglansad sa US-UAE AI AI nga AI-Uya Ai AIE AI AI AI AI AI AI AI AI AI AI AI AI AI AI AI AI AI AI AI AI AI AI AI AI AI AI AI AI AI AI AI AI AI AI AI AI AI AI AI AI AI AI AI AI AI AI AI AI AI AI AI AI AI AI AI AI AI AI AI AI AI AI AI AI AI AI AI AI AI AI AI AI AI AI AI AI AI AI AI AI AI AI AI AI Ai ai ai ai ai ai ai ai ai ai ai aicericer by. UAE secures an agreement to import 500,000 NVIVIA H100 chips per year and enhance a 5-Gigawatt AI Data Center in Abu Data – to be the larger outside of the US.
In the energy sector, UAE promises to increase US Energy Project investments from $ 440 billion partnerign Capital Poners
Manufacturing sector will see Emirates Global Aluminum to invest $ 4 billion in a new main aluminum smelter in Oklahoma – the first of this type of US for 45 years. A Gallium project with RTX and the UAE’s Tawzun Council and the Tawzun Council seeks to secure semiconductor and defense chains.
“Trump’s visit has given many consequences to artificial intelligence, energy, aviation, manufacture, and critical minerals,” ValeCha said. “President Trump’s imposition of a 10 percent Baseline tariff in UAE imports – lower than many countries – there is a marginal effect.”
Investment Patterns and Opportunities
The entire economic environment prompts important transfer of investment behavior. “We noticed similar trend of investors in Mena, which is more varying from US-centric portfolios,” said Dweik. “While the US remains a key market, the new disgust and uncertainty in the policy prompts a tilt to European properties and to exit market properties.”
ValeCha quotes expectations of expected fiscal stimulus worth 500 billion in the next 12 years after the new German election. “This fiscal stimulus focuses on incurring infrastructure in Germany, the largest eurozone economy, accounts for one-fourth part of the GDP in the region,” he explained.
UAE stock markets now offer opportunities in value, according to Valecha, with the main index index of Dubai about 16.5 percent under the five-year valuation of it. Abu Dhabi Securities Exchange Applease show similar discounts of about 16.3 percent from five years average.
Liquidity situations in UAE markets have strengthened importance. “At Q1 2025, the DFR records the maximum average trade trading amount for more than a decade of AED 663 million, marking a 67 million 398 million in Q1 2024,” Valecha said.
For regional investors navigating this environment, experts recommend repeating. “Investors should consider mixing traditional and alternative properties, such as sukuk, infrastructure, and private capital of strong sectors such as health care, technology,” as Dwisic.
Looking forward, the IMF forecasts that the UAE GDP will increase by 4 percent of 2025 and 5 percent of 2026, it is made the fastest growing countries of the Gulf Council. The UAE economy is expected to exceed the overall growth rate of oil export countries, which is expected to grow 2.6 percent of 2025 and 3.1 percent of 2026.
