Global temperatures can be higher than we think

The world warms in spite of what we think, according to a new Datras that suggest increases temperatures because pre-industrial time is higher than previous estimates.

To set us trace in violation of Paris Climate Year to keep heating below 1.5 ° C easily frightened, by 2028 instead of 2030-2035 timeframe Usually quoted by scientists.

2024 is the first calendar year The gliding of the global average temperature exceeds 1.5 ° C, after a period of heat recording taking climate scientists around the world. Although itself does not amount to a paris purpose violation – requiring a sustained increase – it is irritating concerns that increase in temperatures faster than expected.

To try to check how we did, Got Kirchegast and Moritz Pichler At the University of Graz in Austria used gradual global temperatures to calculate a new estimate of the global period of frequent surface temperature (GMST) for the period 1850-2024. GMST is the key parameter The intergovernmental climate change panel used to heat the gauge.

The pair also develops a new calculation method to change this GMST, which is a mixture of sea at sea temperature, which they say is a more accurate reflection of the IPCC reports.

“The benchmark record takes the best datras of temperatures in the usual and brought this new refinement,” Kirhehangast said. It leases uncertainty and shows the world that heating is faster than the necessary methods shown, he says the expected threshold of 1.5 ° C threshold.

Kirchegkoas argues that this new, more accurate GSAT record can be used to determine the development of the world’s goals in Paris agreement. The idea is to make “a reference reference for global warming against pre-industrial levels”, he said.

Under the agreement of Paris hit 2015, collective countries that promise to limit global “repair levels of increases in the 1,5 ° C of pre-industrial levels”.

Targets are usually judged against a 20-year average temperature, but researchers do not agree with how best to calculate it. Only use of historical observations will result in a 10-year time to share a violation of one of the targets, so the increasing scientific suggest using a rolling average, Drawing a mix of observation data and predictions.

Kirhehangast and Pichler suggested their new record on benchmark GSAT, along with future climate predictions, to make a real level of global warming up to make progress against the purposes of warming in Paris. Their role puts the current level of heating at 1.39 ° C above pre-industrial levels.

but Duo chan At the University of Southampton, UK, says a GSAT record is not the best metric to use to judge the heat rate. “Gsat has not been the first metric used in IPCC discussions, climate targets, communication or most observations,” he meant.

GMST, on the other hand, scales often have other changes in the climate system such as Increase in sea levelThe reefs bleaching, changing rain and other side effects, he said. “For high-level accountability, GMS remained an adequate Information Yardstrick,” he argued.

Andrew Jarvis In the Lancaster University in the UK says there is a “urgent” need for scientific community to agree to a method of judging progress against Paris targets. “The arising of many estimates actually restricts policy examination,” he argued.