Like President Trump’s parades to the Middle East this week, he can cope with a different region than the one he has experienced in his first term. In fact, the problem of Israeli-Palestinian remained unresolved, as the challenges resulted from many nuclear nuclear programs in Iran and the Dysfunction of Iraq, Syria and Yemen.
But this old wine is now wrapped in new bottles. Overrun Garish headings In Trump’s plan to accept a Boeing 747 as a gift from Qatar, new trends emerging to change the region, making additional challenges for US policy.
With all the Middle East changes since Hamas’ October 7, 2023, attack Israel, may be the most impressive of Israel as a regional powerhouse. Presidential Biden and Trump administrations are helped, and activated by Arab regimes without supporting Palestinians and Hezbollah many military organizations. With United States Support, Europe and friendly Arabs say, this is effective departed Two direct attacks on Iranian missile in its territory.
Israel then gave its own strike, reported despoiling Most of the Iranian missile missile missile and air defenses. In short, Israel reached out to escaration: the capacity of curiosity (or not) as seen as appropriate, and to prevent its enemies. Israel also SAVED The concept of boundary of Gaza, Lebanon, West Bank and Syria by acting unreal to fix its territory.
The transfer of the power of the Israeli military to political arrangements, even the discussion of peace, seems to be a reasonable next step. But the right wing of the Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu seems to be not interested in such choices and unavoidably prompted to prompt its view. In addition, securing new, lasting agreements also depends on whether there are leaders in Palestinians and Key Arabs who are ready to prepare challenge, all political risks it is with.
But the Arab world remains intense disturbance. At least five Arab states faced deeper challenges, leaving them with different degrees of dysfunction and state failure. Among this power of power, two alternative electric centers emerged. The first is the states of the Persian Gulf, especially Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates and Qatar. Assuming not included in Arab Spring and blessed with sovereign funds of wealth, oil and natural gas, these steady power of Saudi, especially Saudi Arabia, playing a role in the region.
The second category contains non-Arab states. Israel, Turkey and Iran are the only states of the region with the ability to project important military power beyond their boundaries. While each suffered during internal turbulence times, they now enjoy home strength. Each also boasts of great economic potential and meaningful security, military capabilities, including the ability to make weapons.
One (Israel) is the closest regional ally of America, another (Turkey) is a member of our NATO and new influence despite recognizing its proxies Hamas and Hezbollah. The Nuclear program of Iran hid it related, even central, both Israel and American mediation policy.
All three non-arab states are healing a great suspicion and mistrust of Arab registrants but even visible as key players who do not have a playful player. All three are in adversity – every time failing others’ goals – and all three are here to stay. Their influence is likely to improve only in the coming years, giving birth to the Arab world.
In the immediate after October 7 attack, it seems to be the issue of Palestinian once again in front and center, not only in the world of Arab, but international. Those who claim to have lost their resonance can point out pouring sympathy and support for civilians in Gazan as Israeli war against Hamas who brought a humanity.
In addition, the United Nations has passed Resolutions Calling the end of the war, many around the world ruled the war and Israel, the international court of justice took inquire If Israel was upset, and the International Criminal Court issued A warrant of arrest for Netanyahu (as well as for the military military in Hamas, later found to be killed).
However, it is strange to be clear, away from the Palestinian issue at the top of the international agenda, the attack on Oct. 7 left Palestinians alone and with no good choices. Continued US support for the war of Israel against Hamas, despite the increase in Palestinian rise, Israel protected from negative consequences; The Keys of Arab regimes have been done in the absence of the costs and consequences of Israel and the US as civilian civilian killed. The international community is also found to be broken, distracted and self-interested in any combined means of protective protection.
Meanwhile, the movement of the Palesinian National Movement remains divided and dismissal of Palestinians is a non-made choice between Hamas and the Elder President of the Palestini National Authority, Mahmoud Abbas. Hopes for anything like a two-state solution never see the blast.
How Trump administration will process these advances stay visible. It is clear, it adopted a pro-Israel view, which Trump musing is part of the Gaza again in a Riviera-Style Resort. She is there carry His special Envoy in the Middle East to secure the return of hostages taken with Hamas but never invested in any postwar plan for beleaguered enclave. In fact, he left the strategy for Gaza in Israel, which in turn continues its military campaign. Trump also depends on the chase of Israel’s aggressive boundaries against Lebanon and Syria, while delivering the policies of Annexationist to Israel in the West Bank.
However Trump is nothing unpredictable. In April, he Office has partnered New US negotiations in Iran in the presence of Netanyahu, which personally attempted to persuade the President, the only solution to Iranian nuclear action was the military action. But if negotiations with the US-IRAN develop, or if Trump’s interests in Normalization of Israel-Saudi may find himself negotiating with Gaza and a political society for Palestinians.
These paths have been suffering from stress between Trump, who not to visit Israel In his middle eastward journey, and a necalcitrant netanyahuuu. But Trump’s full control over his party, Netanyahu has some options to appeal Republicans if the White House suggested. As most of the US allies have already learned, if Trump wants something, he can’t avoid pressure to get it.
Aaron David Miller, a senior with Carnegie endowment for international peace, a former East East department and democratic administrations and the writer of “The end of Greatness: Why America cannot have (and dislikes) another great President. “Lauren Morganbesser is a junior partner with Carnegie endowment for international peace.
